Sunday, December 30, 2007

COT Numbers

The COT Report:
The latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC shows that Commercial Hedgers sold 18,917 S&P 500 futures contracts last week to bring their net short position to -7,222 contracts. Large traders were net short -8,394 contracts, with Small Traders net long the remaining 15,616, the so-called "weak hands". For the Nasdaq 100 futures, Commercials sold 4,564 contracts last week to bring their net long position to 2,967 contracts. Small Traders were net long 2,531 contracts in the Nasdaq. Commercial action in Dow futures saw the smart money buy 2,750 contracts to bring their net long position to 5,842 contracts.
Commercial Hedgers were better sellers in the S&P's last week, while Small Traders were better buyers, a short term bearish sign. Commercials are now net short in the all important S&P futures, and that has been an intermediate term bearish sign historically.

Saturday, December 29, 2007

For What it's Worth: Here's Byron Wien's Top Ten for 2008

http://safehaven.com/article-9112.htm

Happy New Year Fellow Traders!!!

Hopefully 2008 will be the most profitable one ever! Charge up the battery, let's get pumped up for 2008 and knock the cover off the ball! Thank you for visiting and supporting this blog. See you soon!

Last Holy Grail Setup for 2007

Saturday, December 22, 2007

The BEST trading book

I have read tons of books on trading over a 10 year time span and i think by far the book that opened my eyes on trading has to be the "Master Swing trader" by Alan Farley. He is my idol and i really admire his insights and his approach. Check out his website at www.hardrightedge.com

Read the book, it will inspire you.

Good trading!

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Stewie Meets Wall Street

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iVkmr8wk9N8&feature=related

Important Market Update

This market sucks ass! Enough Said.

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Monday, December 17, 2007

A look inside today's Internals

Advances & Declines

NYSE NASDAQ
Advances 606 (18%) 627 (20%)
Declines 2,744 (80%) 2,392 (77%)
Unchanged 68 (2%) 96 (3%)
Up Vol* 732 (20%) 205 (11%)
Down Vol* 2,801 (78%) 1,717 (88%)
Unch. Vol* 53 (1%) 22 (1%)
New Hi's 28 46
New Lo's 388 330

Where's the FED? They Claimed They Would be very Friendly but Where Are They?!






A big reason for my very bullish call two weeks ago was due to the assumption that the FED would be a lot more friendly than this. This is a very stingy/tight FED and they seem like "happy people" and "hopeful people" like Cramer said on CNBC after the FEd meeting last week. Alan Greenspan thinks that the FED should let the 'sub prime slime' work it's way out of the system and allow the mrkt to be the mrkt. I do agree somewhat with this view but in this scenario we are clearly headed much much lower. Unless the FED intervenes, i can see this mrkt heading a lot lower in time. Look at the charts and they tell the story. Bear market like selling again, just like we saw 1 month ago.

Let's watch these charts over the next few days and see how they develop. I'll be watching the VIX very closely the next few days and see if it can take out that bull flag. If it does, then watch out below and bring in the fireworks!! The next two weeks will surely be very interesting. Be very careful trying to chase longs and shorts for that matter in this market. I highly recommend you reduce share size. I am back into day trading mode and there should be plenty of intra day volatility to make me happy. No trades for me today.

Good Luck and trade smart!

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Divergences Spot the bottom today and set up a nice trade in MA for those that took it.


FSLR trade




yesterday i bot 500 FSLR in after hours after spotting this awesome looking C&H pattern. BOT 500 at 242 and sold it this morning at 246. a nice quick $2000. FSLR went on to rally 7pts from where i sold.
I usually would have been more patient with the pattern but i only got 3 hours of sleep due to my lady being sick. Seems like a shitty day to trade anyway. back to sleep.

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Tuesday, December 11, 2007

I have a Dinner Engagement Tonight with My Lady

BUT I have quickly plowed thru some sector charts and i can tell you right now, today's action really damaged a lot of very nice chart patterns i was looking at a few days ago. I'll post a lot of them during tmrw's trading session. What a day! Thanks Ben!

FED Selloff was Harsh but it was rather Expected.






There's no doubt, the FED dropped a bomb today and are still too tight and need to loosen up going forward. A FEd that stays this tight could bring in trouble down the road. BUT let's watch how the charts react over the next few days before making any strong directional trades either way. The rally off the lows was timed perfectly and we made some nice gains and it would be just silly to just try and long/short anything right now. there's too much risk either way. Fed reacts are notoriously deceiving and that's why i try and avoid trading FED meeting all together. I got burned too many times and learned to just let the charts settle a couple of days. No need to lose hard earned profits during trending markets by trading uncertain/choppy ones. Just sit out and relax and let the charts decide what they want to do. The charts are like a trading map and they will tell you where to go next, don't just guess. Let's let the charts tell us over the next couple of days what's going on. We will have a 10 times better idea from tmrw's trading session then trying to make sense of today's.

good trading.

Sold TNH: A swing from yesterday at $138.1 for a sweet $6 profit.

I am back to 100% cash ahead of the FED. We are very overbought and even tho we could rally after the statement. The chances are more likely that we pullback. I will buy any post-fed weakness.

Two Kinds of Markets/ Two Favorite Patterns

There are two kinds of markets, markets that trend UP/DOWN and markets that chop/go sideways. Therefore i have two kinds of strategies that I use.
Trending Markets: I use the HOLY GRAIL
Choppy Markets: I use the DOUBLE BOTTOM DIVERGENCE

If you are not familiar with any of them. Take some time and plow thru my archives and you will see detailed explanations of each. It will be worth your time.

Monday, December 10, 2007

Setup To Watch: SOHU

TNH Trade


Small Sell Signal on XBD.


Hopefully that setups a sell on the news tmrw after the FED meeting. I will be looking to buy.

Intra Day Setup


After getting stopped of FSLR for a nice swing trade profit from friday. It set up nicely again as a holy grail setup.

Intra Day Alert on XBD/Broker Index.



Sunday, December 9, 2007

Holy Grail

http://www.lbrgroup.com/images///raschke_pt2_0304.pdf

Saturday, December 8, 2007

From Legendary Stock Market timer Bob Brinker's Newsletter

Says:

"Market Timer Stock Sentiment Index enters December with a highly favorable reading of 130 which well above its bullish threshold of 100."


"We expect the bull market to continue well into 2008 and we look for significant stock market gains, including new sp500 record highs."

Long term Charts Supports the Bullish Case







Wake UP and Smell the Bull Market!










The charts have morphed to a degree in the past few days/weeks that this is the most bullish i have been in a number of years. Ignore the talking heads and recession talk we all feared 2-4 weeks ago. The market corrected and it was scary and very ugly. Those charts are so damn bullish that new highs should be coming soon. I just follow the charts and they are screaming at me now. 2008 will be a good one for stocks i believe. There is so much pessimism out there and there are a lot of people betting against the market meanwhile the charts are screaming at a major bottom. This will only add fuel to the bullish tone. It feels like a new Bull market almost is in the works. Just follow the charts. Let's hope i am right, how awesome would that be! Enjoy!

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