Monday, November 30, 2009

Bears Make A Good Case, Bulls Make A Good Case BUT....







Odds are highest we will be stuck in a range bound chop thru out most of december. With every rally, bulls will gain confidence and with every selloff bears will claim victory but i honestly feel like the indexes will be stuck in a hole for a little while longer.

As far as my trading goes and alerts to my subscribers, i am focusing on short term bursts in momentum in some of the few pockets of strengths i am seeing. Stocks like: CAAS, CYD, CTRP, TSL. These are the kinds of stocks on top of my watchlist lately. The play lists are definitely narrowing down but what is working is working well.

So, i'll just stick to that for now until we see a break!

THIS IS A TOPPING PATTERN ANY WAY YOU SLICE IT


This index of small cap stocks which represents risky assets is slowly but surely topping out in my opinion. Any way you slice it, whether we bounce slightly here, this index looks headed lower in due time. It seems very hard to believe i know! Just like the rally off the march was hard to believe and everyone was skeptical. Anything is possible.

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Weekly Russell 2000 Printing First Series Of Lower Highs


I believe that the index that tracks small cap stocks is showing that money is finally exiting the riskier assets. We are seeing a series of lower highs starting to emerge which is how DOWN TRENDS START! Definitely need to watch this index very closely. Please note: this pattern does not confirm a downtrend yet. A solid break below 550 and the bears are back in 100% control of this index.

Charts You Need To Be Aware Of

























































The technical picture is looking very suspect for the bull's case. I honestly feel all this is playing out with in a topping process. There will lots of head fakes, false rallies and attempted breakdowns along the way but eventually the downtrend could assert itself within the weeks or months to follow. Having said all that, i am a short term trader and only care about intra day action. Hope these charts help you in your trading. good luck.

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Market Tops Are A Process Not A Single Day Event














Art Cashin weighs in and i am starting to join this camp as of late. After turning bullish in late March, I am starting to not like the long side here. I know that tops and bottoms are a process and take a while to play out but i am seeing more and more evidence that showing me that longs need to start playing a little defense. The markets will give many head fakes as it works out this potential topping process. Leadership and volume is clearly waning down and that is a big problem for the bulls.

Art Cashin Video

83.33% Return In 33 Weeks Of Live Trading!

Check out the full trading performance here: http://artoftrading.net/performance

26 winning weeks with only 7 small down weeks!!



Much more than trading alerts: I TEACH YOU!!



The performance and testimonials speaks for itself!



"Hey Stewie! It has been a wonderful experience.
Thank you for running such an honest and genuine trading forum. I love the transparency of your operation. And to top it off you come across as a very genuine, talented, yet humble person. A rarity in this business :)
You have a great system, and better yet the discipline to stick to it.
Keep up the good work, my friend.
B."


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Friday, November 27, 2009

Performance This Week

Hi guys,

It was another week where we traded in small size due to the choppy low volume market conditions: Remember YOUR capital preservation is my NUMBER ONE GOAL NOW. HALF the normal size on all allocations. TRADES labeled as DAY TRADES were half size and trades labeled as SWING TRADES were quarter size: It was AN UP WEEK!! First one in 3 weeks. Now, the trades i took today were ALL high probability trades in my book. Under normal circumstances, I would have taken a FULL positions in ALL OF THEM so today would have been a monster day for us under normal circumstances. But i am not worried about that, i know that if you trade to protect capital first, a winning rhythm will get eventually and the bigger money trades will come!! I had some great ideas this week but with a little more patience, what were good trades could been MONSTER trades. I feel good about this week and i am very happy with how discipline won the week for us.

Traded smartly and with lots of patience and discipline to WAIT FOR THE PROPER SETUPS TO SURFACE! That's what made the difference this week.



LONG/SHRT Symbol Entry Price Exit Price % Profit/Loss
Holding Period








LONG AGU 57.92 57.94 0
day trade Half size
LONG NUVA 31.99 31 -0.75
day trade Quarter Size
LONG TNA 33.4 34.2 0.6
day trade Quarter Size
LONG IPI 29.8 30.6 0.67
day trade Quarter Size
LONG GLD 113.64 114.22 0.13
day trade Quarter Size
LONG CLF 43.75 43.85 0.12
day trade Half size
LONG IPI 31.12 31.14 0
day trade Half size
LONG AONE 16.5 16.35 -0.45
day trade Half size

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Rally Starting To Run On Thin Air



The rally is in my mind running out of steam and in due time sooner rather than later we "should" see a major correction start to unfold. Fewer and fewer stocks are supporting the recent advance. The volume on up days has been pretty much been non-existent. Also the VIX has been drifting into areas of complacency showing that investors are less fearful. These charts will be very interesting to watch over the next few weeks.

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Pay Attention To The King Of Stocks


GS is my market barometer and i consider this stock the absolute LEADING stock. Looks very sick here. Not sure what that means yet but definitely will watch it.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Bullish Patterns Emerging


Potential Cup and Handle Printing on SPX


The past 10 days or so have been whipsaw madness! But the pattern that is started to emerge from this madness is starting to exhibit bullish structure. This is a holiday shortened week with Thanks Giving coming up but we need to expect the bulls to still be in charge here.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Art Of Trading Service Review By A Member



If you were ever curious about the ART OF TRADING service and never joined us for a free trial: CHECK OUT THIS REVIEW done by a member:


ANARCO BLOG


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83% Return In 32 Weeks Of Live Trading!

Check out the full trading performance here: http://artoftrading.net/performance

25 winning weeks with only 7 small down weeks!!



Much more than trading alerts: I WANT TO TEACH YOU!!



The performance and testimonials speaks for itself!





"Stewie,
Your service has helped my trading tremendously and I have grown into a more confident and skilled trader because of it. What more can you ask for? :) So thank you and keep up the great work!
Cheers,
R."




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Friday, November 20, 2009

Commercial Traders Most Bearish Since Late 2007

Share photos on twitter with Twitpic


These kinds of data do not give an exact entry date but it is definitely interesting to see what the people "in the know" are doing with their money. These guys and gals are definitely worth respecting as they not wrong very often.

Best Poker Players Make The Best Traders?

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Brandon Adams, who teaches behavioral finance at Harvard
University’s Department of Economics, says some of the best candidates for Wall
Street trading jobs are the professional card players at FullTiltPoker.com and
similar Web sites.

“They’ve essentially been the survivors in the system, a very difficult system
where 95 percent of people lose money,” the 30-year-old Adams, who plays at the
site, said in a telephone interview. “Anyone smart enough and disciplined enough
to survive that system is probably going to do very well in the trading world.”

An increasing number of hedge funds and brokerages are scrutinizing
professional poker to find talent and analytical tools, according to financial
recruiters including Options Group, a New York-based executive-search company.
Susquehanna International Group LLP, the Bala Cynwyd, Pennsylvania-based options
and equity trading company, uses poker to teach strategic thinking.

“Someone who has made a successful living as a poker player for a few years
would more likely be a good trader than someone who hasn’t,” said Aaron Brown, a
53-year-old former poker pro who is now a risk manager at AQR Capital Management
LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut, which oversees $23 billion. “They know to push
when they have the edge and they know how not to bust, and that’s a tough
combination to find.”

Skill Sets

Skills that define successful traders -- rational approach toward risk, speedy
decision-making under pressure, discipline and a well-trained memory -- are the
same ones that separate elite poker players from ones known as “dead money,”
financial recruiters say.

After the World Series of Poker started in Las Vegas four months ago, Options
Group recruiter Simon Satanovsky said he received a hedge-fund request for
online poker players with no financial experience. He wouldn’t identify the
client.

“Before, we were asking about GPA or the Math/Physics Olympiad,” Satanovsky, a
former Russian national bridge champion, said in a telephone interview. “Now,
we’re asking questions about poker successes.”

Satanovsky said Wall Street firms and recruiters have been paying increasing
attention to poker players as job candidates since 2003, when amateur Chris
Moneymaker beat hundreds of professionals to win the World Series of Poker’s
No-Limit Texas Hold ‘Em main event.

The Right Game

Adams, who has taught at Harvard in Cambridge, Massachusetts, each spring since
2003, said disciplined poker players can be spotted on sites such as Full Tilt
and PokerStars.com waiting for particular games, not tempted by those outside
their area of expertise or financial comfort level.

Their self-control and confidence would be useful in trading where large
profits are possible, the probability of going broke high and the competition
formidable, he said. Adams cited as an example a trader who notices a slight
imperfection in the way options are being priced, then works to come up with the
proper bet per trade.

“In poker, people are used to not sitting back and waiting for the fat pitch,”
Adams said. “They’re used to skirting the edge of ruin and they learn the tools
of how to do that.”

Susquehanna has been using poker to teach its new traders since it was founded
in 1987, said Pat McCauley, who heads the privately held firm’s
trader-development program.

College Friends

The company’s founders played the game as college friends at the State
University of New York-Binghamton. Susquehanna has held in-house poker
tournaments to recruit traders and monitor decision-making skills.

The trainees learn to use information they see in the marketplace to infer what
motivates others, helping them make better prices. It’s the same way poker pro
Phil Ivey, considered among the game’s greats, makes bets based on what he sees
among his opponents, McCauley said.

“What professional poker players are really good at is taking this information
that’s relatively subjective, quantifying it and making it objective, and that’s
what trading is about,” McCauley said.

The ability to write complex poker algorithms, which either run poker Web sites
or try to beat them, will get hedge funds interested, said Todd Fahey, a
recruiter who specializes in quantitative finance at New York-based Exemplar
Partners.

“There have been a few guys that I’ve placed in the industry that come from the
poker software side of the house,” Fahey said in a telephone interview. “Two
Sigma, D.E. Shaw and any of your larger computationally-based hedge funds are
going to want to see people like this.”

Two Sigma Investments LLC and D.E. Shaw Group, both based in New York, declined
to comment.

Begleiter’s Try

The worlds of poker and finance often intersect. Steven Begleiter, who headed
corporate strategy at Bear Stearns Cos. before its 2008 collapse, earned $1.6
million earlier this month with a sixth-place finish in the main event.
Greenlight Capital LLC founder David Einhorn was 18th in 2006. The annual “Wall
Street Poker Night,” benefiting Math for America, was started by billionaire
James Simons, the founder of hedge-fund firm Renaissance Technologies Corp. This
April, the $5,000 buy-in tournament drew 100 entrants -- 90 percent from hedge
funds or other Wall Street jobs -- raising $1.3 million.

Even though poker players make good traders, they aren’t necessarily good with
their own investments, said Adams, adding that he is almost “famously
unsuccessful” as an investor.

“Poker players are lazy and they’re gossipers,” he said. “If you look at the
way they trade, they tend to latch onto other people’s ideas.”

Texas Hold ‘Em

One person who has chosen poker over finance is Joe Cada, who this month
outlasted Begleiter and Ivey at the main event final table. Cada, who plays the
game professionally, was first among 6,494 entrants and took home the $8.55
million top prize, giving half to financial backers Cliff Josephy and Eric
Haber, poker pros with Wall Street backgrounds. The Texas Hold ‘Em contest had a
$10,000 entry fee.

“As a little kid, I used to watch the stock markets day in and day out,” Cada,
22, said in an interview. “My parents always thought I was going to get into
banking or become a stockbroker because I was really good with math and logic,
and I was obsessed with money.”

Cada said he plans to remain a poker pro. AQR’s Brown, the author of “The Poker
Face of Wall Street” and a life-long player, long ago gave up the game
professionally after a couple years of trying.

“I eventually decided finance was easier,” he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mason Levinson in New York at
mlevinson@bloomberg.net .

High Frequency Algorithms Tampering with the Tape & Chart Setups


Great article:


http://wallstcheatsheet.com/

This article helps explain some of the frustrations i had in my personal trading these past 2-3 weeks. I think that smaller positions and widers stops are going to be the norm going forward on many setups in order to achieve more consistent trading results.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Le Main De Dieu: Henry Hands France Ticket To The World Cup



A hand ball has not been this controversial since Diego Maradona's hand ball against England in 1986!

As a huge soccer fan, i must say that the past week or so, soccer has been getting some very negative and controversial news. Non more controversial than Thiery Henry's illegal hand ball against Ireland recently. France hosted Ireland at Le Stad De France in paris, this game was a world cup qualification game in which Ireland needed to win to get thru to the world cup in South Africa in 2010. This was a do or die game for France and Ireland!!!! High stakes game to say the least!!!
Ireland was winning 1-0 until Theiry Henry illegally used his hand to control the ball and sends in a cross and assisted Gallas' goal to tie the game!! The tie was enough to send France to the World Cup and Ireland's world cup dreams chattered by a moment of dishonesty by Henry and a major fuck up by the referees.
I ask, where were the referees????!!!! Where is the video camera evidence for such an important game???? Why aren't there referees standing behind each goal to help the center referee make these huge game changing decisions?????!!
Henry is a tremendous soccer player, one of the best strikers of modern soccer but this incident will surely change people's opinion of him! In all honesty, i do not blame henry for this. I BLAME FIFA and failure to introduce 2009 technology to the game!! This game is the most popular game on the planet, people get killed over a game of soccer! Referees get threatened if not assaulted or killed over a bad call!! FIFA needs technology to monitor players on and off the ball! What the hell are they waiting for???? Henry is a man i would not want to be today. This man's life in danger over this incident and he is not sleeping at night.
Many people who did not grow up playing soccer in other countries(like i did) don't understand the intensity of this game. Soccer unlike many other sports, ithas a very intense fan base. Soccer is life for many many people! In many poor countries, soccer is their outlet from poverty. Professional soccer players is what they aspire to be to get themselves and their families out of the ghettos. Many do not even go to school because their parents prefer they play the game all day on the streets in hope of becoming professional players. It's a passion for the game, not seen in any other sport. It is the most followed, the played, the most watched and most popular sport in the world and with it comes the super intensity of fans and followers.
Soccer has it's ugly side as well:

Go to facebook and search for: "we irish hate thierry henry(the cheat)" and you will see one example of what i am talking about. Soccer is intense!

In Henry's defense i will say this: He is a footballer and he did what comes instinctively to him, he handled the ball instinctively! If you played soccer or are a serious soccer player, then chances are YOU did the same thing at some point during a game. Happens all the time!

I do not blame henry. I blame FIFA and their decisions on how they decide to govern the beautiful game. FIFA needs to apologize to the fellow Irish and give them a rematch against France and reform soccer refereeing along the way!! I call for keeping the 3 referee system but also adding 2 more refs, one behind each goal and that will surely make room for much less errors! Also, introduce video technology for important games!! This needs to happen ASAP!

For me, all i want to do is kick the ball around and get out there and compete over a good fair of football! It's the only thing that consistently puts a genuine childlike smile on my face since i was 5 years old!!

It's the beautiful game and always will be.

More Soccer Madness!



Soccer has been grabbing some very negative headlines lately! It is still the beautiful game in my eyes. Always will be!

Weekly Charts Showing Rouded Tops



Let's quickly look at these two KEY charts as to where we are in the weekly cycles. Watch these charts very closely as it might help explain why it has been so difficult to make money trading this market lately. Low volume rallies followed by violent out of the blue selloffs. The topping out scenario i laid out to you guys 1-2 weeks ago is starting to become more and more evident to me now. The weekly charts are starting to print topping rounded top patterns. If this indeed does play out, then things are gonna surely get super interesting come 2010.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Do NOT Mess With This Soccer Player!!!! Must See!!!



Do NOT mess with her!!!!

Bullish Patterns Emerging In Financial Sector



This sector was a big laggard in this most recent rally but now the 60 minute charts are starting to print what looks like bullish formations and i am looking for a move higher as early as tomorrow.

Monday, November 16, 2009

83.6% Return In 31 Weeks Of Live Trading!

Check out the full trading performance here: http://artoftrading.net/performance

25 winning weeks with only 6 small down weeks!!



Much more than trading alerts: I WANT TO TEACH YOU!!



The performance and testimonials from current members speaks for itself!



Testimonial from a member:


"Wow!
Great call, Stewie.
I'm frequently amazed by your trading wisdom. It takes a lot of trading wisdom, courage, confidence, and a steady hand to stay on the sidelines when the market gives no good signals.

Had I listened to your calls in the last two days, I would be patiently waiting for opportunity rather than managing a loser. Oh well, live and learn.

John."




TRY IT OUT FOR 14 DAYS FREE AND SEE FOR YOURSELF WHAT CURRENT MEMBERS ARE TALKING ABOUT!!

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Trading ONH: Short Term Over Night Trading

For those who want to short term trade and cannot day trade: Check out my article on Chartly blog about ONH(Over Night Holds)!

ONH Trading

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Great Testimonial From An Art Of Trading Service Member Still On Free Trial!!



"I just signed up and am excited about getting started. Very impressive so far in every way! Keep up the hard work and lets make some money!! Or not lose!!

I have lost a ton of money this year at another website... capital preservation is top priority!! I like the way you are handling things... very professional and SMART.
Thanks again."

M.K.



For More great Art Of Trading testimonials: Please check it out here:

http://artoftrading.net/testimonials


Other than the awesome testimonials i get from many subscribers,
another thing I am very proud of since starting this service over 7 months ago is the retention rate of new subscribers to the service. I have over a 90% retention rate of new subscribers who choose to stay on board after the 14 day free trial.
Obviously, 9 out 10 new traders see value in what i am trying to offer that they choose to stay past the 14 day free trial!!!


JOIN US FOR A 14 DAY FREE TRIAL AND CHECK IT OUT FOR YOURSELF!!

Art Of Trading Performance: Week 30

Here's this week's performance. It was a very tough week for my style of trading which requires volume to be present in the market!

There were positives and i will focus on the silver lining from looking at this week's trades. First of all STEC and VPHM were both swing trade shorts from last week. So these were not NEW trades per se. The new trades we did this week were a total of 8 trades(Which way less than our weekly average). All day trades which was my goal this week. My NUMBER ONE GOAL this week was to focus on day trades and focus on TRADING TO NOT LOSE: NO BIG RISKS. Sometimes guys, it is VITAL to TRADE TO NOT LOSE rather be a gun slinger and fire shots like a mad man that everything that moves. YOU DO NOT NEED TO WIN BIG ON ALL YOUR TRADES, EVERY SINGLE DAY. Playing defense is what i did this week. I decreased activity drastically and i like it that way until i get into a winning rhythm again and i also kept closer stop losses than normal if you noticed and i was very proactive NOT ALLOWING LOSING TRADES TO HIT STOP LOSSES.

Need to play defense until the right trading environment start to manifest themselves again.
My goal for next week is as follows:

1. First, if you decide to follow my alerts: i want you TO CUT ALL POSITION SIZES IN HALF until we start to see a steady stream of winners. CUT SIZE IN HALF STARTING MONDAY.

2. I will continue to focus on the open and the close to place my trades.

3. DISCIPLINE is placing the ONLY GOOD trades. DISCIPLINE is waiting for the correct timing. DISCIPLINE in trade management.


WEEK 30














LONG/SHRT Symbol Entry Price Exit Price % Profit/Loss
Holding Period








SHORT STEC 13.18 13.28 -0.38
swing trade HALF SIZE
SHORT VPHM 7.5 7.73 -1.51
swing trade HALF SIZE
LONG ERX 46.65 46.99 0.73
day trade
LONG TRW 22.65 22.35 -1.32
day trade
LONG SWK 50.55 50.1 -0.89
day trade
LONG FCX 84.05 84.2 0.18
day trade
LONG NTRI 22.7 22.5 -0.88
day trade
LONG STEC 14.2 14.35 1.06
day trade
LONG TZA 12.7 12.71 0.08
day trade
LONG TZA 12.95 12.75 -1.54
day trade

Thursday, November 12, 2009

More Evidence Not All Is Well Under The Surface








SPX near 1100 and DOW is at 10,000 but under the surface, there are some early warning signs that not all is well for the bullish case.

Not A Healthy Rally




Strong rallies do not look like this.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

NTRI Setup


with a 33% short interest in this stock, i like it long here as it hovers near highs. reminds me of NFLX recently.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

AAPL Topping Out?


I think you should watch this stock and how it negotiates this pattern over the next few days/weeks.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Check Out FUQI Short Setup Now: A step by step view








In trading, timing is everything! If you were bearish 3 days ago on FUQI, you were spot on BUT the timing of the move was critical. check it out now.

I am NOT short this stock but looks to be the time.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

The Best Trades Work Right Away!

One of my favorite books on trading is: Stock MArket Wizards by Jack Schwagger

http://www.amazon.com/Stock-Market-Wizards-Interviews-Americas/dp/0066620597


AWESOME READ! and will get you in the mind of some of the best trading minds around. One interview that stands out and i read it almost 7-8 years ago by Mark Minervi:

I quote:

Mark Minvervi: " I hope i don't get a good fill."

Interviewer: "come again?"

Mark Minervi: "a good fill is a death blow. The average investor who puts in a buy order when the market is at 27 is thrilled if he gets a fill at 26.75. I would just turn around and get out of the position. Stocks that ready to blast off are usually very difficult to buy without pushing the market higher. If i put in an order for ten thousand at 27 and the floor comes to me and says, 'we can only do three thousand at 27. The market is at 27.25. What do you want to do?' It reinforces my belief that the timing of the trade is right".


Think about what Mark Minervi just said in this interview guys!!!

and now go back and think about the BEST trades we did here at the ART OF TRADING. The best trades do NOT give you a chance to in, very rarely at least. I can think right off the bat of the TNA trade we did on friday. As soon as order is filled, it ran like crazy, even if you missed it by 20-30 cents, it was enough to see it run another $1.5!

The best trades WORK RIGHT AWAY! Check it out: it's RULE number TWO on my website: artoftrading.net

A GOOD Trader WILL: 1. Always wait for the setup: No Setup-NO Trade. 2.Knows that THE BEST trades work almost right away. 3.Never takes a big loss. If it doesn't 'feel' right. Remove it! 4.Always perfecting his craft 5.Is patient with winning trades:Impatient with trades that fight back. 6.Knows that DISCIPLINE is the key to winning at everything! 7.Never gets emotionally attached to trades, trading, losses or profits. 8.Will always trade with the size that makes him unemotional.

Art Of Trading Performance This Week

Lots of hard work but essentially we went nowhere. Traded inconsistently as we tried to battle a horribly choppy trading week. Also saw a couple of really nice gains stop out at breakeven or a loss due to not pulling the trigger to book gains fast enough. That was the two biggest mistakes made this week: Not taking gains quickly and trying to do too much in a choppy tape. Lesson learned!!

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

FUQI Short Setup


seen many similar patterns like these in my past, FUQI is gonna get ripped to pieces sooner rather later.

BULLS WEAK: BEAR FLAGS EVERYWHERE NOW



The bulls attempt at a two rally was pathetic to say the least. This is indicative of their willingness to support a rally.....very poor and lower prices are coming in the very near future.

Monday, November 2, 2009

Sharp Rally Brewing




The market's decline appears to be losing momentum to the downside. We are now looming at some nice looking DOJI candles on the SPY and NASDAQ. The nasdaq is also appearing to be setting up a falling wedge on the 30 min charts further indicating a rally could be brewing. Today also, i noticed that there many "easy" short setups. Most of the time, whenever i see 'easy' short setups, that has usually led to a reversal higher. The market rarely offers freebies for too long.

Great Testimonial From a Subscriber Of The Art Of Trading!!

"Stewie....great transition from Bull to Bear. You are a professional and very impressed with your ability to roll with the punches and ride whatever trend the market throws your way. Also, congrats on the positive review from etoke.com.

Excellent work my friend.

Thanks!"

John.



I am NOT A BULL NOR A BEAR. I trade long positions when the market goes up, I trade short positions when the market goes down. I am not a cheer leader of either bulls or bears, I AM TRADER.



Check Us Out! Start With The 14 Day Free Trial!

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Bear Flags Everywhere!






The markets have broken down HARD this week. We have clearly topped out and a much deeper correction in time and price is well underway. I still expect the markets heading lower even amid "oversold" conditions. We might see bounces via early morning strength but if my analysis of bear market behavior is correct then these bounces should be short lived and we could see sloppy and choppy rallies meanwhile stocks get sold off hard and fast into the close. Early strength followed by late day weakness is a typical character of a bear market. I will be looking for that this week and for the lower prices in due time.

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