
From where i am sitting right now, it's much better to assume that this market is in AN UPTREND that was confirmed with that HIGHER LOW that was printed in late August. The overall pattern that is taking shape on the SPX thru out 2010 has a look and feel of a consolidation within a bullish trend. Sentiment continues to be poor and this rally that started in March 2009 has by been the 'most hated' rally i have ever seen. All this bodes well for the bullish from a longer term perspective. As you guys know by now, i am a short term trader so long projections is not something i do very often but the more i step out the 'shoes' of a short term trader and look around at what is really going on and SHUTTING OUT THE NOISE you hear on CNBC, bearish blogs and twitter and truly and honestly look at things around you will notice that things are not all that bad out there. Sure, we will see some corrections and pullbacks but you gotta hand it to and give respect to a market that refuses to give in to all the "negativity". This in itself is a very bullish sign from a long term perspective.
Think about it this way: If you were short a stock, now the stock refuses to drop and instead teases like it's going drop only to reverse back up and continues to defy: what is that stock telling you? For me, it tells me, that is getting ready to move UP, not down.
Put it this way, 2 weeks ago "The Hindenburg Omen"(an very rare market event that precedes a market crash) was the talk of the town yet this market continues to ramp up. Prior to that Hindenburg Omen, people were looking at that "DEATH CROSS" pattern which once again, the market has managed to shrug off. The indexes are flat year to date: Think about it is that really bearish? Yes, they are down from their 2010 highs but is that really a bad thing? One really strong advance the indexes could notch up a decent 2010 performance come December 31st.
Ask yourself in all honesty: A market that behaves like this, that continues to defy all this negativity/ doom and gloom projections that is thrown at it: what is this market trying to tell us??