Followers

Sunday, December 16, 2012

New Setups To Watch This Week

ADT: basing near highs with healthy volume patterns: breakout over 46.00 looks imminent.


CNH: Very strong volume (accumulation) on recent up days. Good momentum here so a breakout looks imminent.

EXPR: Gapped up on strong volume 2 weeks ago on earnings: its been consolidating in a BULL FLAG type formation: Looks poised to breakout soon.

LAMR: A rather unusual looking chart but thus far the action has a bullish feel to it. Could consolidate a few more days ahead of a new breakout over the 41.00 area.

MSCI: Looks to be basing in a bottoming pattern. Its trying to start a new series of HIGHER LOWS. A breakout over 30.30 could start a GAP FILL run up to 35.00.

RPM: A decent looking CUP & HANDLE pattern in RPM now. In the strong "CHEMICALS" sector. RPM looks poised to breakout thru that 29.00 resistance zone.
Other strong Chemical names to watch: LYB, POL, PPG, GRA & WLK. 


XME: This metals ETF could benefit from the rotation we have seen out of the Technology sector and into other areas of the market. XME looks to be setting up in a SYMMETRICAL triangle with a breakout 'warming up'. One more small pullback would not be bad before it attempts a 45.00 area breakout.

Note: make sure to check and re-check earnings dates on these stocks. 





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Wednesday, November 7, 2012

How Oversold Are We Really?



Just because we are down over 300 points on Dow Jones today or down to 1400 on SPX, DOES NOT MEAN THAT THIS IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY.
Be very careful falling into the BUY EVERY BIG DIP mentality. Obviously, that all just depends on your timeframes as a trader and the time frame of your trades. Even for my short term nature, i am a little hesitant getting long right now. Yes, some stocks are very OVERSOLD and could bounce nicely for 1-2 days, but keep in mind, OVERSOLD can get even more OVERSOL ..... very quickly. Ask anyone who was bought AAPL recently because it looked "oversold". 
This entire week, My goal was to keep ART OF TRADING members out of trouble; Remained in a 100% cash stance for the entire week pretty much. 
It has helped many based on emails i received and stirred most out of harm's way. That's GREAT as that was the intention. 

Sometimes, in trading, its NOT how much money you make but how money you keep that matters most. If by standing aside you managed to avoid account damage then that's a big win and puts you in a mental and financial position to attack with more confidence when the time is appropriate. 

Look at the chart i attached . You will see that we are nowhere near "OVERSOLD" really. If this maket wants to, it can easily keep drifting down and selling off in the days/weeks to come. The downside risk is very real and it needs to be respected. Sure there will be PLAYABLE bounces(like yesterday's bounce) but let's keep in mind the bigger picture. 

Study the TRIN and SPX relationship in the attached charts. Study how SPX and TRIN behave during times of 'EXTREMES', watch how TRIN spikes up into EXTREMEs on days when SPX tanks and especially near climax bottoms where the selling really intensifies indicating CAPITULATION. 


 If you not sure what you are looking at or don't understand it. email me at traderstewie@yahoo.com, and i'll help explain it(maybe in a video). 

Sunday, October 21, 2012

The Most Important Lesson In Trading

Hi folks: An important note that i'd like to share ahead of next week.

While we had a solid week this week(11 trades: 9 winners and 2 losses), we did incur TWO losses in SINA and LULU. But there were VERY valuable lessons to take from BOTH trades. As you  know by now, when a stock gaps DOWN THRU my stop loss, i always urge people to simply OBEY THE STOP LOSS; SELL immediately at the open and MOVE ON. Now, while the SINA trade was a loss of around 1.60% loss(very small loss) if you sold a few seconds after the open(like the alert suggested you do). Some traders did not sell it and SINA luckily reversed back up and some traders LUCKILY sold it for a gain a few minutes later(pheewww, keep in mind, that was lucky).
In the chat room and in the emails, i always recommend you respect the original stop loss and sell it at the open because all it takes is ONE TIME for you to "break the rules" and you can get punished badly. The LULU trade was a perfect example of this, it gapped down below the stop loss level(at which point you must sell it immediately). But i am convinced that a few traders remembered what happened with the SINA trade, where it gapped down below the stop loss area and quickly reversed higher. I have no doubt in my mind, that some were thinking(hoping), the same thing would happen with LULU. Keep in mind guys, IT ONLY TAKES ONE TIME for it to not reverse and it could hurt. That's all it takes, JUST ONE TIME.  

In the end, its trading 101 really: OBEY THE STOP LOSS: as sucky as it may be, we must obey the stop loss. The pain from not obeying is really not worth it cause it ONLY TAKES ONE TIME. LULU stopped out at the open for a 2.60% loss(very respectable loss here), it closed down on friday with a 7.50% loss = NOT acceptable to incur that kind of loss in my book).



The hardest part about trading is TAKING A LOSS. It's hard not only because it means that you will have to incur a loss that will decrease your account size but it's hard mostly because you want to be RIGHT! Nobody wants to be wrong. 

Nothing wrong with getting into a mistimed trades: That happens to EVERYONE regardless of experience. Nothing wrong with making mistakes or bad entries in trading but the biggest mistake one can make is STAYING with a mistake because you refuse to sell at a small loss or obey the initial stop loss. When ego is on the line, as traders, many of us do things we otherwise wouldn't do. Nothing wrong with losses as long as they are SMALL. Recovering from a SMALL LOSS is a whole lot easier then digging yourself out of a big hole, never forget that. Recovering from a large loss is a nightmare and it hurts many traders mentally and financially. Many traders will learn this lesson many times over and over again the HARD WAY unfortunately. The best thing to do is to take the initial SMALL LOSS as sucky as it may feel initially. Bite the bullet and MOVE ON. You will instantly feel a sense of "relief" and you can now focus on BETTER AND BIGGER IDEAS and not be stuck in something that is not working and hoping, praying it turns. 

Cut the losses early/quickly when possible and you will recover and then some later once the better trade setups start lining up again. You will get better trades eventually but you gotta give yourself the chance to win over the longer term and that means taking small losses on mistimed trades.

Thanks for reading.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

ART OF TRADING Members Success Stories!

Just wanted to say thanks.

I followed you on GMCR, CTRP, LULU, SINA and CBG. I have a tiny account and was a bit worried about your monthly cost, but by playing with only 1-3 option contracts I have been able to pay for my first month with you. I appreciate the setups and the alerts. I used to be skeptical of all the testimonials you posted, cause a lot of sites I swear they type them out themselves, but here I am writing one for you to say thanks.

Keep it up. I hope I can finally turn around my years of misfortune on the stock market by learning from you.

Richard (New ART OF TRADING member on free trial)





Stewie,

Thank you to you and the service you provide.  I am not a big trader, I consider myself one of the small guys.  I only have an account of $40k but I do want to let you know that because of your picks and the quality of traders you have in the chat-room, I started my account at the beginning of October with $35k and have made over $5k in just over two weeks.  You are a class act and I will recommend your service to all my friends.  And to those who do trade I recommend using the chat room feature because the educational value is second to none...What you teach is invaluable.

A sincere thank you from JohnS


AMZN
253.80
-100
-25380
10.45
-25380
251.12
-25122.5
257.55
TWM
26.80
700
18760
10.45
18760
26.7
18679.55
-80.45
CRUS
37.91
659
24982.69
10.45
24982.69
38.33
25249.02
266.33
PHM
15.64
1590
24867.6
10.45
24867.6
15.79
25095.65
228.05
PPC
5.26
594
3124.44
10.45
3124.44
5.28
3125.87
1.43
AAPL
665.11
-37
-24609.1
10.45
-24609.1
666.38
-24666.5
-57.44
AAPL
666.74
-37
-24669.4
10.45
-24669.4
668.15
-24732
-62.62
USG
21.74
5
108.7
5.22
108.7
22.38
106.68
-2.02
USG
21.74
520
11304.8
5.22
11304.8
22.37
11627.18
322.38
USG
21.74
625
13587.5
10.45
13587.5
22.25
13895.8
308.30
LULU
75.32
210
15817.2
10.45
15817.2
74.85
15708.05
-109.15
TWM
26.96
900
24264
10.45
24264
26.41
23758.55
-505.45
GRMN
42.35
500
21175
10.45
21175
42.5
21239.55
64.55
LPX
12.99
957
12431.43
10.45
12431.43
13.1
12526.25
94.82
CMI
92.17
135
12442.95
10.45
12442.95
91.86
12390.65
-52.30
BGCP
5.09
2455
12495.95
10.45
12495.95
5.12
12559.15
63.20
PANL
33.91
368
12478.88
10.45
12478.88
34.17
12564.11
85.23
FIO
31.51
409
12887.59
10.45
12887.59
31.57
12901.68
14.09
LPX
13.06
957
12498.42
10.45
12498.42
13.57
12976.04
477.62
VNRG
4.63
2693
12468.59
10.45
12468.59
4.88
13131.39
662.80
VNRG
4.82
1329
6405.78
10.45
6405.78
4.8
6368.75
-37.03
HUM
73.80
-169
-12472.2
10.45
-12472.2
73.73
-12470.8
1.38
UA
56.47
-200
-11294
10.45
-11294
56.27
-11264.5
29.55
UA
56.47
-21
-1185.87
5.22
-1185.87
56.09
-1183.11
2.76
ISRG
511.56
17
8696.52
10.45
8696.52
508.06
8626.57
-69.95
AAPL
646.00
19
12274
10.45
12274
643.89
12223.46
-50.54
CRUS
37.92
600
22752
10.45
22752
37.58
22537.55
-214.45
ANN
36.95
338
12489.1
10.45
12489.1
36.84
12441.47
-47.63
AAPL
644.17
-19
-12239.2
10.45
-12239.2
637.94
-12131.3
107.92
AIG
35.58
351
12488.58
10.45
12488.58
35.61
12488.66
0.08
AAPL
638.28
19
12127.32
10.45
12127.32
640.9
12166.65
39.33
CAVM
32.00
-389
-12448
10.45
-12448
31.75
-12361.2
86.80
VNRG
5.22
1000
5220
10.45
5220
5.44
5429.55
209.55
VNRG
5.28
1100
5808
10.45
5808
5.43
5962.55
154.55
AAPL
638.64
19
12134.16
10.45
12134.16
636.1
12075.45
-58.71
VNRG
5.42
1000
5420
10.45
5420
5.23
5219.55
-200.45
AAPL
632.79
19
12023.01
10.45
12023.01
628.82
11937.13
-85.88
XLE
74.12
339
25126.68
10.45
25126.68
74.15
25126.4
-0.28
CRUS
36.94
375
13852.5
10.45
13852.5
36.92
13834.55
-17.95
VNRG
5.29
500
2645
10.45
2645
5.08
2529.55
-115.45
GOOG
2480.00
1
2380
11.3
2380
2800
2788.7
408.70
CRUS
36.90
-100
-3690
10.45
-3690
36.67
-3677.45
12.55
VNRG
5.12
500
2560
10.45
2560
5.38
2679.55
119.55
VNRG
4.99
500
2495
5.22
2495
5.38
2684.78
189.78
VNRG
4.79
1250
5987.5
5.22
5987.5
5.38
6719.78
732.28
SSO
61.39
407
24985.73
10.45
24985.73
61.16
24881.67
-104.06
GOOG
2300.00
1
2300
5.77
2300
2100
2094.23
-205.77
GOOG
2290.00
3
6870
14.15
6870
2450
7335.85
465.85
VNRG
4.55
200
910
10.45
910
4.5
889.55
-20.45
AAPL
644.71
38
24498.98
10.45
24498.98
641.28
24358.19
-140.79
GS
119.37
-209
-24948.3
10.45
-24948.3
120
-25090.5
-142.12
HD
60.47
247
14936.09
10.45
14936.09
59.79
14757.68
-178.41
ANR
7.28
820
5969.6
10.45
5969.6
7.65
6262.55
292.95
CAT
82.61
-151
-12474.1
10.45
-12474.1
82.54
-12474
0.12
ANR
7.28
823
5991.44
10.45
5991.44
7.83
6433.64
442.20
BBG
24.80
503
12474.4
10.45
12474.4
24.59
12358.32
-116.08
HERO
5.08
-2948
-14975.8
10.45
-14975.8
5.28
-15575.9
-600.05
SPXU
38.26
326
12472.76
10.45
12472.76
38.02
12384.07
-88.69
HERO
5.24
-2948
-15447.5
5.31
-15447.5
5.28
-15570.8
-123.23
AAPL
1406.00
1
1406
11.3
1406
1300
1288.7
-117.30
CDE
29.42
424
12474.08
10.45
12474.08
29.61
12544.19
70.11
GS
394.00
5
1970
17.22
1970
415
2057.78
87.78
AAPL
3010.00
1
3010
11.7
3010
3050
3038.3
28.30
AAPL
1035.00
3
3105
14.07
3105
1095
3270.93
165.93
AAPL
2815.00
1
2815
10.85
2815
2931
2920.15
105.15
VNRG
4.83
500
2415
10.45
2415
4.48
2229.55
-185.45
VNRG
4.56
500
2280
5.31
2280
4.48
2234.69
-45.31
AKAM
37.63
-700
-26341
10.45
-26341
37.36
-26162.5
178.55
AET
43.66
286
12486.76
10.45
12486.76
43.43
12410.53
-76.23
HTZ
15.08
831
12531.48
10.45
12531.48
14.98
12437.93
-93.55
QLD
57.36
435
24951.6
10.45
24951.6
57.77
25119.5
167.90
AAPL
2810.00
1
2810
10.65
2810
2740
2729.35
-80.65
LEN
36.30
687
24938.1
10.45
24938.1
36.7
25202.45
264.35
Withdrawal





-500

AAPL
2670.00
2
5340
11.2
5340
2730
5448.8
108.80
CNX
34.47
-300
-10341
10.45
-10341
34.63
-10399.5
-58.45
CNX
34.47
-62
-2137.14
5.31
-2137.14
34.67
-2154.85
-17.71
CDE
29.51
423
12482.73
10.45
12482.73
29.6
12510.35
27.62
Margin






-20.21

AMZN
1320.00
2
2640
14.5
2640
1455
2895.5
255.50
AMZN
1278.00
1
1278
6.06
1278
1455
1448.94
170.94
AMZN
1395.00
5
6975
16.5
6975
1465
7308.5
333.50
AMZN
1430.00
4
5720
16.5
5720
1510
6023.5
303.50
AMZN
1430.00
1
1430
6.09
1430
1550
1543.91
113.91
GMCR
22.18
563
12487.34
10.45
12487.34
23.46
13197.53
710.19
Withdrawal





-500

SINA
59.24
422
24999.28
10.45
24999.28
59.85
25246.25
246.97
GOOG
2190.00
2
4380
13.51
4380
2200
4386.49
6.49
GOOG
2050.00
1
2050
10.65
2050
2150
2139.35
89.35
CBG
19.21
1307
25107.47
10.45
25107.47
19.31
25227.72
120.25



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