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Saturday, January 14, 2012

New Setups To Watch















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Tuesday, January 10, 2012

10 New Setups To Watch










Never Chase Big Gap Opens


I normally avoid chasing any breakout plays from my watchlists or gaps when the market gaps up big on news. I normally hate chasing gap ups in a "good market" so chasing gap ups in a "suspect market" is something i try and not do. So if there are any setups that 'triggered', i will unfortunately just have to pass on them for the time being, allow them to RE-SET UP and observe the action for a couple of hours from the sidelines. I like to look for two things:

1. Is this gap holding?

and/or

2. is this gap fading?

Most importantly, are the internals favoring the Gap's direction and are stocks on watchlists holding their gains?? This is extremely important for short term direction and in determining whether to get active or not. These are also very important in determining a market's true intentions: strength or weakness.

I always urge patience when we see big gap up and big gap downs. Allow the proper intra day setup to come to you.

Good trading!



Tuesday, January 3, 2012

5 New Setups To Watch







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Wednesday, December 28, 2011

All Done For 2011


Officially all done for 2011 as of today. Volume has dropped off a cliff this week and see no point on being out there risking capital and risk making silly mistakes with only 2 days left in 2011. Saving my energy and focus for January 2012!!





We had 9 profitable months and 3 losing months. Overall i am pleased with the performance but like every other trader i know, there is ALWAYS room for improvement.

I decided to take a very conservative approach starting in early June once we started seeing an "alarming" number of failed breakouts and just prior to index charts rolling over hard. This helped many AOT members stay out of trouble during the July/August crash. One of the key strategies i was "forced" to adopt was to eliminate swing trading almost completely for a while. This was done out of necessity pretty much since most of the news was coming overnight out of Europe while US markets were closed. In hindsight this was a really sound decision when looking at what had transpired and seeing how the Euro zone crisis had escalated to levels i couldn't have imagined previously.


Some recent feedback from ART OF TRADING members:

"Your service has been invaluable to me (my portfolio is up 25% this year thanks to you and everything I learned in the chat room). I will not unsubscribe, ever! :)
Thanks!

Claire (ART OF TRADING member for 9 months)"



"What a great day! Today I traded DMND, AAPL, and WNR all for profits.

I lost a lot of my account value in this summer's crash. That was when I decided to try trading instead of traditional investing. Thanks to you and the chat room I have recouped all my losses and am green :)
Thank You!

Soozie" (ART OF TRADING member for 4 months)



"Best Trading room!

I'm fairly new to trading with just over 1 year of experience. Tried a few chat rooms around before I landed on Art of Trading. I can easily say this is the best trading room with the smartest bunch of guys - focus on high quality trades, good risk management and great sense of market direction. I've benefited immensely from their experience and have definitely improved my risk/reward with my trades.

LongCandles" (ART OF TRADING member for 3 months)



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Wednesday, December 21, 2011

An ART OF TRADING Member Books A 200% Gain In AMZN Puts





Got this email today from Ganesh(Gan333) who has been a member here at the ART OF TRADING for over 2 years. Earlier in the morning, i mentioned AMZN as a good short. Ganesh took the trade via PUT options and scored an amazing 200% gain in about 3 hours!


"Great call on AMZN short entry in the chat room, Stewie.......here is attached that trade that says it all.

Of all the things I have bought and sold in the last 3 years in the market, this service is the best buy and hold investment.........and on a recurring basis too!
And I've tried quite a bunch of services.....but your personal take and mentorship on a realtime basis on the market is what makes this special.
My trading style has definitely benefited from your advise to buy and more importantly NOT buy.......

'Fuinha' and 'LongCandles' from the chat room make many great calls too!"

Sunday, December 18, 2011

New Setups To Watch















"Hey stew

I played the GLD short setup this morning by buying jan 145 put options and im up 70%! thanks for the setup! should i hold or sell some, wow never thought i would see gold slice tru the 200 day like that, is this the start of something bigger?"

Pascal (New ART OF TRADING member still on free trial!)



Stewie,

I just talked to Paypal and my account should be good to go. Please reactivate my subscription. Your service has been invaluable to me (my portfolio is up 25% this year thanks to you and everything I learned in the chat room) so I will not unsubscribe, ever! :)
Thanks!

Claire (ART OF TRADING member for 9 months)


For a 14 day free trial, visit us at ArtOfTrading.net

Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

No Panic Selling Despite Extreme Oversold Conditions








Check out these readings on the Mcclellan index is now starting to exhibit readings rarely seen at this extreme. Something to be aware BUT not a reason to go and buy everything in sight. Remember, this is only something to be aware of. It's NOT a BUY SIGNAL in my opinion. Sure we could see a bounce soon to relieve some of these oversold readings but the real story is happening in the VIX chart in my opinion.
As far as i am concerned i still do NOT see any climax or capitulation selling which is often seen near major market bottoms. Please look at the VIX chart attached very closely. Take a few minutes and study it.
What do you see? Based on that chart of the VIX, do you believe the SELLING is done yet? Do you see panic selling? NOT ME.

Conclusion: we are going LOWER. How far lower?? Not sure at this point. My only advise is DO NOT be a hero. Let the market tell you where the bottom is.

Good luck out there.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

New Setups To Watch and Market Analysis














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Monday, October 31, 2011

Things I've Learned After 15 Years Of Trading

Never underestimate the power of a momentum move. Up or Down. Once the freight train is in motion, it will keep going much further than most have anticipated.

Price is the only thing that matters. Adapt to it, don't fight it.

Don't under estimate the power of desperate money managers in the fourth quarter. They need to beat their bench marks or risk losing their jobs/clients.

Mental stops will ensure you an emotional trade. Don;t use mental stops. You are either in the trade or not. Mental stops invite emotions.

Mental stops is another way of saying : "I am not sure where to place my stop"

Adding to a losing position is one of the best ways to end your trading career.

The biggest winning trades normally have big volume driving them higher.

Trading triple ETFS will deplete the account over the long term.

"Too many eyes" on a key breakout point will most likely cause that pattern to fail first. AKA ; fuckery. Revisit the "NEW" setup after the fuckery has shaken out the majority.

Sentiment is always more negative on bottom retests than in the FIRST low. Watch out above if the retest is successful.

Most double bottoms come with strong MACD/RSI divergences. A powerful event if you see this.

Be aware of stocks that take "too long to go". early indication of demand drying up.

The best trade setups, work immediately after they trigger. They barely give you a chance of to jump on board.

The best traders are incredibly nimble. They can be bearish but still capable to taking longs without hesitation.

Perma bears and perma bulls eventually get washed out of the market. You have to respect a strong bull market and you have to respect a mean bear market.

More trades does NOT equal more profits. LESS IS MORE.

The best traders i know, keep their routine very simple.

Price charts and volume is all you need. Most indicators are noise the majority of the time.

Never confuse YOUR macro views with what is actually happening in the stock market.

Economy could be in recession but if the market is rallying, you need to listen to the market. It pays better.

Fighting the trend doesn't pay well. In general, trading with a trend, pays off much better.

Get aggressive when you make 2-3 good trades back to back.

Get VERY defensive when you make 2-3 bad trades. Often times traders will do the opposite. (Self destructive behavior).

Trading on margin is the surest way to emotional decision making and eventually will wash you out of the business.

Never underestimate the confidence building power of a tiny gain that is booked. Green on the screen helps build confidence for future trades.

Big winning streak start with tiny wins. (The snow ball effect).

Most losing streaks start because a "basic' rule was broken. Emotions taking over.

IN bulls markets, if you are to err, err on the long side. NOT SHORT. Short squeezes can be powerful and painful.

It's ok to be wrong but it's NEVER ok to "STAY WRONG".

Good fundamental analysis and proper technical trading is a killer combination. Think CANSLIM / IBD (investors Business Daily)

Too many bullish setups is NOT always a "good thing"/ A plethora of bullish setups normally precedes a big down day. Aka: Fuckery.

Trading stocks is a lot like a beauty contest. What looks best, wins.

THe best technical patterns is the BULL FLAGS. It comes in many varities. Learn to spot them.

Candle stick patterns don't mean anything WITHOUT follow thru. A Hammer or a DOJI means nothing unless it gets follow thru the next day.

Very hard to short a market when the financial stocks(XLF) are strong.

Trading with 'conviction' is great BUT trading with 'arrogance' is a sure way to the poor house.

You have to understand, you cannot impose your will on the market. The market is bigger and smarter than you and you need to adapt to it. Not the other way around.

Sentiment polls are worthless for the most part. Focus on price action.

More market bottoms take place in October than in any other month. A simple observation that i made over the years.

Always be aware when short interest on the NYSE starts to hit record highs. Normally means we are getting close to a major bottom.

In december, small caps and micro cap stocks(junk stocks) come alive. many will double or triple in a few days.

Keep your approach as simple and basic as possible. Can you explain it to a 10 year old?

The market is master at forecasting events well ahead of time. by the time, the actual news hits, the market has already discounted it.

never short a market in momentum mode.

Never short a market that is "quiet" or "choppy".

Trading in choppy market is one of the most difficult and frustrating things to do.

Shorting over the long run pays very poorly. Odds are heavily stacked against bears over the long run.

Many strong forces are constantly working against shorts: PPT, short sales bans, government intervention etc.

Every stock will go thru a period of accumulation, topping out, distribution and bottoming and a new cycle begins. Rinse, repeat.....

Big long candles on big volume are often the start of something bigger. Scan and track those stocks. Many will end up being big winners.

Trust your gut, if something doesn't 'feel' right, sell it. Analyze it from the sidelines (emotion free)

Chat rooms are the best learning tool but be aware of what is noise and what is quality actionable, tradeable information.

Be ware of trades that "fill easily". The best trades barely give you a 'good price'.

It takes a brave soul to admit a trade is not working and sell it at a loss. The 'easy' thing to do is carry the position and "hope" it turns.

Your 'hardest' work should be done while the market is closed. So that when the market opens, you will be prepared once your setups become active.

Surround yourself with POSITIVE people. haters are hating for a reason. They are LOSING. pure and simple. Positive people are winning or on the right path to winning.

Work HARD and work SMART. Both are equally important if you want to make a profession from your trades.

The character of the person will be tested when things are going horribly bad. Will you be the phoenix to rise from the ashes?

Don't brag, beat your chest when things are going well. Eventually mother market humbles us all.

The harder you force trades, the more likely to lose. Allow the natural process to happen...naturally.

Lucky breaks normally come when you are trading well. Unlucky breaks come when you are trading poorly.

Wining and losing streaks come in cycles. Be aware which cycle YOU are currently in. Be aggressive when winning and confidence is high.

TOPS are a long process, rarely a single day event.

Failed breakouts and deterioration of stocks under the surface are the first warning signs. Fewer and fewer stocks left holding up the indexes.

BOTTOMS are a process, rarely a single event. Many stocks start to bottom well ahead of the indexes.

Always be aware of what is going on in the "MARKET OF STOCKS", not just the "stock market". INdexes will always react to what is happening to stocks under the surface.

in bull markets, you buy dips and trade breakouts when momentum is clearly UP. In bear markets, you short weak low volume bounces and short breakdowns when momentum is clearly DOWN.

Don't be a bull, don;t be a bear: Be a predator. constantly lurking and stalking the "easy prey".

Perma bulls and perma bulls are dangerous, lazy and arrogant. Don't take their views too seriously if you care about YOUR account.

It's not about being 'bullish' or 'bearish'. It's about being RIGHT. Please understand this. It's vital to long term survival.

It's not about being 'bullish' or 'bearish'. It's about being RIGHT. Please understand this. It's vital to long term survival.

It's not about being 'bullish' or 'bearish'. It's about being RIGHT. Please understand this. It's vital to long term survival.

Catching falling knives will sooner or later land you into a mine field. Big difference between buying a dip and catching a falling knife.

Swing trading triple ETFs will give you insomnia. Is it really worth it?

Professional traders know strength begets more strengths. Weakness begets more weakness.

Anticipate "now" what you think will be 'popular' later.

Most traders are never "happy" with their trades. Understand that no trade will ever be "PERFECT".

When a stock breaks out on big volume. The first dip will normaly bought up very quickly.

If you have no solid plan(i.e. Setup, proper entry, stop loss, exit strategy, target), then why are you in the trade?

Often times, the best trades require you to buy high and sell higher.

Learn to be patient once in a winning position. Learn to be very impateint when in a losing or questionable position
Lowering a stop loss is the first sign of trouble. You are breaking the rules and emotions are starting to creep in. Careful when u see that.

Never ever, get into a position that is "too BIG" for the account size. All it takes is a bad trades to cripple you beyond repair.

It's ok to say " i am wrong and what do i need to do now?"

Always be aware of which stocks are exhibiting STRENGTH in a weak tape.

Always be aware of which stocks are exhibiting WEAKNESS in a strong tape.

Boredom trades costs add up and can hurt you. Be aware of when you are simply bored and looking to trade something "JUST TO TRADE"

You will never buy the exact bottom and you'll never exact sell the exact top: Don't beat yourself up if "you left money on the table"

EMOTIONS is what causes most traders to break their rules.

It's NOT the news that is most important, it's the REACTION to the news. Respect the price action.

Use YOUR gut. If it doesn't 'feel' right. Remove it. Reassess from the sidelines(emotion free).

Have a list of setups READY for the following day. Know the trigger prices ahead of time. Have plan: setup, position size, entry, exit, max loss and targets.

NO plan? NO TRADE!

10 times out of 10, Traders who carry BIG losses wishes they had respected their "ORIGINAL" stop. So, respect the ORIGINAL STOP LOSS, ALWAYS!

Over trading is the POISON for your trading. LESS IS MORE!

Never chase GAP UPS. Allow the first 45-60 minutes to pass by and then see what is setting up best intra-day.

You want to enter stocks that have the BEST bases on ALL TIME FRAMES. Weekly, daily, 60 min, 30 min, 10, 5 min. << the more time frames align, the higher the probability the trade.

Focus on finding "GOOD BASES" :: The longer a stock bases, the more meaningful the breakout.

Keep a balanced life. It's not all about the screens. Spend time with family, friends: They deserve more attention.

Stay humble, stay grounded, remember where you came from and where you want to go. What is here today, can easily be gone tomorrow. Respect what you have yet shoot to achieve more.

cheers and god bless.




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