Thursday, September 10, 2009

Mapping Out The UUP Bear Market


The UUP continues to trend lower. Bearish pattern after bearish pattern finds new lower lows in UUP with no real reversal in sight.

4 comments:

Shawn said...

Stewie,

Tomorrow or Monday will reveal the real trade.

I know your time span is short term. But try connecting the lows of UUP, or $USD of the lows in June, Aug, and last 2 days.

Connect the highs in March, April, and Sept.

Now the million $ question --are you bearish still?

Stewie said...

hi shawn. i am not bearish. check out my post that i did on monday TITLED: THE MARKET IS GETTING READY TO RALLY"

The transportation got me very bullish last weekend and i was convinced we would see a strong rally this weekend. That chart spoke to me shawn. It was time to get long. Look at the TRAN breakout today and the volume behind it.

Brian said...

Want to know where the S&P 500 is headed? Just watch the dollar. I recently read this in an article by David Goldman posted on the Inner Workings blog:
Something ominous is at work here. Typically, a stronger dollar goes together with a stronger stock market. That is what we observe prior to the bank bailout last fall. Starting in the third quarter of 2008 and going to the present, the correlation turns sharply and persistently negative. A cheaper dollar means higher stock prices, as US assets are marked down for global investors.

What we have is not a stock market rally but an adjustment to global market prices. Fully 80% of the movement in the S&P can be explained by the movement in the dollar index.

That is a profile well known to emerging market investors. Whenever the Brazilians would pull another currency devaluation, stock prices rose to compensate, as tradeable assets floated up to world market prices. The bank bailout has made Americans poorer relative to the rest of the world and created the illusion of a stock market recovery".

Now the question is... how low will the dollar go?

Stewie said...

excellent insights brian. thanks a lot for that. reminds me of jim rogers when he said DO NOT SHORT US STOCKs because the DOW could go to 100,000 but the US dollar will be worthless.

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