Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Breakdown in US Dollar!

5 comments:

Joel said...

Does it matter that it looks like it did this on very low volume?

Stewie said...

hi joel. that chart was posted shortly after the open. see the closing UUP chart. volume picked up a bit.

Greenlander said...

that def looks llike bad news for the dollar. if this follows through, we might see somemore action again in oil and gold. other commodities too although Im pretty down on Ag's. they seem pretty soggy.

Danny Merkel said...

Hi Stewie,

I agree with your interpretation of the US Dollar chart. But wouldn't you say that these type of obvious chart patterns tend to fail often?

I remember you talking about the obvious bearish rising wedge a few weeks ago (which you correctly took a contrarian view on), and we just had another 'obvious' bearish head and shoulders pattern, which really now appears to be failing as well.

It just seems to me that these kind patterns work about just as often as they fail.

Also, in your opinion, would you agree that this pattern is more likely to work than past patterns due to it being in the direction of the trend?

Stewie said...

i don't trust any breakouts or breakdowns in this market. that's why i do not play bigger trends. i put on trades and i always taking gains and losses quickly. pull up a chart of the SPX: have we gone anywhere in the last 4 months? nope. just range madness. with bulls getting excited at highs and bears calling doom near lows. don't think too hard in the this market. simple is best and don't trust patterns that everyone talks about, especially on CNBC. for a while, all CNBC was talking was that H&S pattern.

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