Thursday, April 15, 2010

Observations From A Neutral Perspective

GOOG, one of the market leaders came out with earnings and is down slightly. One thing i will note is if you are a bear, then the earnings reactions so far are not going according your plans. The reactions have been positive thus far. I honestly feel like every pullback you see from here on the indexes needs to be bought. There is an appetite for stocks right now. There could millions of reasons why i think but i honestly feel like many money managers have missed this one completely! They missed the rally completely and need to play catch up. Many are even shorting or have been shorting the whole way up. Ask legendary hedge find manager Doug Kass if what i am saying above is true or not.

There is a NEED to own stocks. Jobs are on the line, reputations are on the line. Whether the economy is improving or not is not my place to say, but all i can tell is what i see in stock price ACTION and that is this is a bull market and in bull markets stocks go up and pullbacks are bought. I have ZERO interest in shorting right now. bears markets last an average of less than 18 months and bull markets last at least 4-5 years. This rally started exactly one year ago and i still more haters and skeptics of the rally then i was seeing last year!

Rallies climb a wall of worry. I stay we need to stay long and continue buying dips.

7 comments:

Joe said...

Hi Stewie, we have had 50 plus sessions without a 1 percent downmove, even if you add up consecutive down days. A record of sorts. Don't you think a downward move would be needed before it continues to go up. Are we overlooking US macroeconomics like umemployment and low interest rates?

Shawn said...

Stewie, if you don't mind a TA question.

If a stock or index is in a long triangle pattern, how would you measure the target price of the breakout?

1) I heard of using the length of time as measure, and just switch it to Price target, i.e. transform from time scale to price scale. Is that valid?

2) How would you know that the 1st beakout is fake? I heard more than 50% chance that the 1st breakout is fake followed by a more powerful reverse direction.

The chart of interest is the ShangHai index, $SSEC in stockcharts.

Thanks
Sean

Anonymous said...

Are you buying? Financials?

Stewie said...

Anon:

I am not touching financials yet or anything for that matter. i am 100% CASH! I am gonna watch how this correction looks like first. I have been waiting and hoping for this for a few days now. Finally we are getting some form of fear back into the markets. The only i am afraid of is that perhaps this correction might be as vicious as i would hope it will be. I am still in buying dips mentality. This bull is NOT over.

Stewie said...

Shawn: i attached a chart for in my latest post. check it out. The way to project a target for the $SSEC is to take the high of the triangle and the low of the triangle and subtract them. The difference you add to the breakout point of 3200. You get a first target of 3500 and then 4000. But Shawn, your one and only trigger will be a HIGH VOLUME breakout event. No VOLUME, means high chance of failure. That will be your cue!

gamingthemarket said...

The options volume was interesting. Yesterday GS traded 7M contracts and today it was 100M. Compared to GOOG that did 6M and 12M or BAC's 240M and 590M!

Looks like something big is moving under the surface of financials. My understanding is international banks will have to unwind ahead of a rate hike. The interest rate swap market is significantly smaller this year. Maybe today was a distribution warning? It sure was exciting.

Stewie said...

HI gtg,

long time man. hope you're well. I agree with you, friday's action in the financials is very very interesting and i would not count a period of weakness for these stocks if not the overall market for a little while. I am hoping for it at least. next week, we'll have a much clearer picture. stay tuned....

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