Friday, May 29, 2009

Bold Prediction and Gut Feeling


I got a strong gut feeling we'll see a "crash" in the VIX come within the next 2 weeks. I can feel it coming. This is just a 'stupid prediction' just like many you see on the internet BUT my only advise is bears have your stops ready and bulls be ready for a monster short squeeze! When markets behave like this you can never be too ready and you need to always stay sharp and stay vigilant and know that ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE! ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE, remember those 3 simple words the minute the opening bell rings.

BIG move is coming and soon in my humblest of opinions.

Be smart.

Blessings to all!

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Stewie,
did todays move in XLF break out in your opinion based on the chart you posted the other day? Thanks

Stewie said...

anon. believe me, there much much deeper lines of thinking behind this call then a simple XLF breakout. a serious wake up call and today i have am finally starting to see bear frustration and the start of what could be a vicious combo of mini bear capitulation combined with the possibility of "sideline" feeling like the they are 'missing the boat'. Jobs are at stakes, reputations etc. the last time i made a bold and out of the blue prediction like this one, we were seeing the EXACT mirror opposite thing happening in March 2008, too many bulls buying dips and i kept shorting and saying that the indexes will crash. i even made a friendly bet with another blogger that the indexes would crash.. i was off by a couple of days but the end result did materialize as reality set it. This is a phenomena, i have seen it MANY MANY times before but on much smaller scale. This time history is rhyming but the scale is amplified. You are seeing a shorting phenomena mirror opposite of the buying phenomena i was seeing in march 2008. It all comes down to denial and the eventual recognition of the truth. i am getting too philosophical here but i hope my point is being made. it might come within 2 weeks or it might after, i don;t know when BUT it is coming. my two cents.

Stewie said...

i humbly believe that once we see a lot of "shorting" mentality almost completely evaporate and switch to complete desperate and outright bullishness then it would be time to pull the rug from under the majority yet again. it's a tricky game of cat and mouse we play in. We will ALL be wrong and there's nothing with being wrong...but what's what stops and trading breaks are for.

TTO said...

Stewie, you will be right. Every time the market was in a trading range Bears came out and said the market was going to tank. Remenber the so "popular" rising wedge in April at 850?? Well this is gonna work out the same. There's no easy money.

There will be serious damage to Bears who still don't believe in the power od this rally. It may be a countertend rally, may be not. But who cares?? I mean, we are seeing some stocks triplicating it's value in just a matter of months. This is no joke.
We need a surprise, a big push where everyone gets convinced this market is definitely Bullish and where there are no Bears left. Only when that happens we will see a serious crash in this market, not before.
My two cents.

GL GT.

Stewie said...

amen tto. we shall see how the cookie crumbles in the days/weeks to come.

DeltaMark said...

i agree, so many no believers out there that this rally is for real. def a cyclical bull in secular bear and we know how secular bears end. But have to trade the tape at the end of the day...

Stewie said...

hi delta. to be honest, regardless whether this prediction is accurate or not, the bottomline is this: I will continue to trade it one day at a time. My longest holding period is 2 days and my average stop loss is less than 5% away.
I trade what i see and i see a whole of doubters with charts that are pointing north. If you dare to say you are "bullish" you will be shunned and booed by the vast majority which are the bears currently. Recall what happened in 2007 and early 2008 when this bear had just started: recall: bears were ridiculed while bulls kept buying and averaging down into steep losses, whilst bears were cleaning house! What are you seeing now?? exact opposite imho. who knows how/when/where it ends?? i don't know but i will not fight it. it is what it is, a strong rally that might just get stronger.

Anonymous said...

Stewie,
thanks for the in-depth explanation. I don't think you were getting too philosophical. Have a great weekend and enjoy some steaks!
Mr.G (anon from first post)

Anonymous said...

Totally agree with your prediction. Some are saying June 4th may be the day.

Stewie said...

a whole lotta guys starting to agree with this possibility. oh oh. ;-)

curious, why june 4th?

Chris said...

Hi Stewie !!!

Could you please add the RSS Feed tool to your blog in order to make it easier for us to check for updates?

Thanks in Advance,

-Chris

Anonymous said...

I think GM doesn't go bankrupt on Monday and we rally hard and fast to S&P over 1,000

Tushar said...

I am sure this time will be no different and your gut will explode once again...my 2 cents.

Stewie said...

chris buudy. i think an rss feed is available for this site. am i mistaken?

Stewie said...

tushar: definitely anything is possible including a bad the timing of my call. but i urge like i urge anyone i care about who trades, to always be ready for worst case scenarios and trade what you see, not you want to see. good luck to all of us in vicious game!!

Stewie said...

anon: to be honest i personally am getting sick and tired of hearing about GM and their woes. so is the market, any news to get these guys out of the news, good or bad will see a relief rally!!

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