Monday, April 27, 2009

Gut Feeling


Expect a bloodbath in tomorrow's session. We are long FAZ and TZA and will most likely add more short exposure. Gut feeling tells me tomorrow's session will be a good reminder that we are in a bear market.

9 comments:

Stewie said...

oh boy: selling looks very mellow, doesn't bode well for the "bloodbath" case today. Might actually set up a short term buying opportunity.

Anonymous said...

Oh boy, Gut explodes!

Stewie said...

lol! gut explodes! bears not getting their way at all. Sold FAZ and TZA Overnight Holds for good gains, sitting on 100% cash and happy to let others duke it out. I highly doubt we'll see a major bullish or bearish break until the stress tests and earnings are behind us. For now, most likely, the tug-o-war will continue. LOTS of trading opps tho.

Anonymous said...

I am reading on market manipulation and efforts to try to keep it up for past two weeks. Do you see or think of any merits in it? Just asking your humble opinion whether that's in your trading strategy or that for any matter distinguishes tug of war between bulls and bears vs government efforts to prop up the indexes.(Efforts not for policy measures or speeches but direct entering in the stock market)

Stewie said...

i am not a manipulation expert by any means. Check out this site: http://www.gamingthemarket.com/

he does an excellent job of revealing the inter workings of prop jobs and PPT.

I am a trader who looks supply/demand in stocks day by day. been trading for a long time and i can you that somethin doesn;t feel quite right with the way stocks have been moving lately. This is why i have been so quick to change my stance and switch from bullish or bearish to bullish etc etc. This market will not forgive stubborn traders. It's ok to have a expectations as long you are lightening fast to switch your stance once you realize that the market is fighting your previous stance, Switch right away and ask questions later. In this market, YOU NEED TO BE UNBIASED, do not be a bull or a bear, just trade the price patterns as they morph in front of you. Know when the bears look fragile and know when the bulls fragile and trade against them. honestly, the market is ALWAYS changing and we might be in a manipulated for many more months to come, we just gonna have to deal with it and adapt. that's my two cents and sorry, i probably went off topic there but you get the point i hope.

Blue said...

S&P 857, +-10pts. Hits 847 go long, hits 867 go short. 6 days and counting...

Anonymous said...

Thanks for sharing your view; I appreciate it.

Anonymous said...

Hey Stewie,

When you said selling looks mellow. Were you looking at volume? Or what made you think that things were starting to look mellow for the bears.

Thanks.

Stewie said...

mellow: comes from years of watching the tape mostly in pre-market. if i see big downs with small losses in premarket in pre-market movers, that's a warning that the decline is not as severe as the futures were making it out to be. vice verse for higher opens. This is my bread and butter as a trader. This is my edge. At analyzing quickly when we see a potential for a reversal off these discrepancies.

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