Saturday, April 18, 2009

A Very Popular Pattern


I am just as guilty as anyone who posted this chart, a rising wedge on the major indexes. This pattern is hard to ignore...there's only ONE PROBLEM! Looking thru many blogs tonight, i see this pattern has become very popular and increases the chances of pattern failure. meaning? this pattern has a higher chance of deceiving most of us napkin chartists and breakout to the upside! LOL! We shall see if the most deceiving game in town lives up to it's reputation....

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sorry for my errors. It's just this crap.

Excellent Blog, great ideas. I'm just sick and tired of seeing the same patterns all over the Web. For example, you go on yuotube and type Market Technical analsis, and 9 out of 10 comes up with the same idea: ending diagonal or a rising wedge underway. So they conclude SELL. I wonder if the average Trader joe as you say is calling for that pattern it's so ovbious it is not going to play out.

I wouldn't be susprised if the Goldman Boys squezze the Bears again who are Full Short at this level waiting for the next Armagedon. It's so ovbious the Trade that I bet it will play out the other way round. Also the Bearish sentiment is still too high and many Funds still waiting for the pullback to go LONG. I see 940-950 playing out before a major retracement for this Huge rally.

GL - GT.

Check this out. Possible??

http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/2006/85986351.jpg

Stewie said...

thank you sir.
sometimes what makes me nervous as a trader is the "too obvious" pattern. in today's market i honestly believe you need much more than bread and butter charting or technical analysis 101 skills, i believe you need to think outside the box and everywhere i look now, it seems that no one respects this rally. people are looking for reasons why, want it, or waiting for it to fail. what if it doesn't?? what if money parked on the sidelines gets performance anxiety? there are just as many bulls out there right now as there were bears in Sept. 2007, jmho. love it or hate, good luck to all.

traderedart said...

If you own it in the hole, don't worry about it.

That's what I say.

Angelo said...

Hi,
I know this market is due for a pullin, but its not pulling in. What does that say? It says the market is jacked up strong. Might be prudent to wait for confirmation of weakness before going all in. Know what I mean?

Stewie said...

i am very interested to see how this week plays out. imo, most people are focusing on the pullback to unload short positions they have been baby sitting for a while, once we see that initial 'pullback' in whatever form it comes, i honestly believe that this pullback will unleash a new wave of short covering. thi8s is what i will be looking this week.

Economista said...

Very interesting analysis. Don´t you think that if everyone expects something then, this will be real? The prophecy!
Regrads,

Stewie said...

it is amazing. i have never seen a pattern being posted on so many blogs. if i had to guess how it plays out, then i'll bet we see a small drop that gets many people thinking the pattern is legit and then pull the rug from underneath them and shoot higher. that's my guess but really anything can happen so just be ready to react to whatever plays out.

Stewie said...

or we could just drift sideways for a few days and form a bull flag type formation or a formation of some other type.

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